NASA has recently updated the impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4, a near-Earth object discovered in December 2024. Initially reported with a 1% chance of striking Earth in December 2032, the likelihood has now increased to 2.3%, according to NASA’s latest assessment.
Rising Concerns Over Asteroid 2024 YR4
Asteroid 2024 YR4, estimated to be between 130 to 300 feet wide, was first detected on December 27, 2024. While a 2.3% chance of impact might still seem relatively low, experts suggest it is uncommon for an asteroid’s probability to rise so significantly within weeks. Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, noted that such a percentage is rare and places the asteroid at level three on the Torino Scale—a ranking system used to assess the potential threat of near-Earth objects. Most asteroids typically rank at zero.
Observational Challenges and Scientific Efforts
One major challenge in tracking asteroid 2024 YR4 is its unique orbit, which will cause it to become unobservable from April 2028 onward. As a result, NASA and other international space agencies are working diligently to collect as much data as possible before it vanishes from view. To improve understanding of the asteroid’s size and potential impact, researchers plan to use the James Webb Space Telescope—the most powerful space telescope ever launched—to refine their measurements.
Potential Impact and Historical Precedents
If asteroid 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, it could cause localized but significant damage, according to the European Space Agency (ESA). Statistically, objects of this size strike Earth approximately once every few thousand years. A comparable event occurred in 2013, when an asteroid of similar dimensions exploded in the atmosphere above Chelyabinsk, Russia. The explosion, which released energy equivalent to 500 kilotons of TNT, injured 1,500 people and damaged over 7,200 buildings across multiple cities.
No Immediate Cause for Alarm
Despite the increase in the estimated probability of impact, NASA reassures the public that there is no immediate reason for concern. Historically, several near-Earth objects have initially appeared on the risk list only to be downgraded to zero as more precise data was gathered. As observations continue, astronomers hope to refine their calculations further and provide a clearer understanding of the asteroid’s trajectory.
For now, scientists around the world remain focused on studying asteroid 2024 YR4, ensuring that any potential risks are properly evaluated in the coming years.