Kazakhstan’s oil industry is riding high, pumping out black gold at an accelerating rate. But with great production comes great logistical headaches. Experts are sounding the alarm: the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), the country’s primary oil artery, may soon be overwhelmed by surging export volumes. And as players in the Kashagan oil field project search for alternative routes, the future of Kazakhstan’s oil flow hangs in the balance.
Since 2024, industry insiders have anticipated a supply bottleneck, and now, those warnings are inching closer to reality. The CPC has long been the workhorse of Kazakhstan’s oil exports, but if production at mega-fields like Kashagan and Tengiz keeps expanding, something’s got to give. With a reported 13% increase in oil exports since early 2025, the momentum is undeniable. Yet, concerns about a dramatic 30% plunge in CPC shipments have proven exaggerated—at least for now.
One potential solution? Domestic refinery expansion. Refining oil at home rather than shipping it out could relieve pressure on export routes and boost Kazakhstan’s energy independence. But there’s a catch—current refinery facilities are already stretched to the limit. Without new infrastructure, immediate relief is unlikely.
