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Merkel’s Dire Prophecy: Can Europe Survive Its Own Division?

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Merkel’s Warning and the Future of Europe (archive photo)

Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has issued a stark warning: Europe risks fragmenting if it cannot address its mounting challenges with a unified approach. In a rare interview with Der Spiegel published last week, Merkel’s assessment carries particular weight coming from a leader who guided Germany and influenced European policy for 16 years through financial crises, migration challenges, and tense relations with the Trump administration.

“The political center is crumbling,” Merkel stated, expressing unusual public concern about Europe’s future. She pointed to Germany’s September federal elections as evidence of this troubling trend. While her Christian Democratic Union secured a narrow victory, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) captured 15.7% of the vote—their strongest showing in a national election. “A party I once described as temporary has become a permanent fixture in our political landscape,” she acknowledged.

Merkel framed her concerns in practical rather than ideological terms. “Strength in unity is not idealism; it’s survival,” she emphasized, arguing that increased defense spending and reformed migration policies are essential measures to prevent Europe’s fragmentation in the face of external pressures from Russia and China.

Her warnings come as Germany struggles to form a stable government. Six weeks after the election, coalition talks between the CDU, Free Democrats, and Greens have stalled over budget priorities and climate policies. This political uncertainty in Europe’s largest economy mirrors broader EU challenges in reaching consensus on critical issues from migration to energy security.

“When the center weakens,” Merkel warned, “extremes fill the void.” She expressed particular concern about the erosion of democratic institutions, making an indirect but unmistakable reference to authoritarian tendencies among world leaders. Without mentioning former U.S. President Donald Trump by name, she criticized leaders who “admire the efficiency of autocracy while disregarding its human costs”—a clear allusion to Trump’s past compliments of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

On migration—perhaps the most controversial aspect of her legacy—Merkel struck a pragmatic tone. She acknowledged the divisiveness of her 2015 decision to welcome over one million refugees but maintained that European solutions require “looking outward” through partnerships with countries of origin and transit. “No single nation can manage these challenges alone,” she insisted during the hour-long interview.

Addressing security concerns, Merkel defended Germany’s commitment to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2025, framing it as necessary for European sovereignty in an increasingly unstable world order.

As Europe confronts rising nationalism, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical pressures, Merkel’s warnings highlight a crucial question: Can European leaders rebuild a political consensus strong enough to withstand these challenges? The answer may determine whether the European project continues to evolve or begins to unravel.