BERLIN — As German voters prepare to cast their ballots in Sunday’s parliamentary elections, concerns about the economy, immigration, and shifting global alliances are shaping their choices.
Originally scheduled for September, the Bundestag election was pushed forward after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed his finance minister on November 6. This decision, following prolonged disputes over economic recovery strategies, led to the breakdown of Scholz’s three-party coalition government and triggered a snap election.
Recent polls indicate that Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) are trailing in third place with 16% of voter support, behind the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) at 20% and the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian partner, the Christian Social Union (CSU), leading with 29%.
With the CDU poised to secure the most votes, it is expected to form a coalition government with one or two other parties. However, forming a government could prove challenging as mainstream parties have ruled out collaborating with the AfD due to concerns over its impact on democracy. The CDU’s candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz, may face obstacles in assembling a viable governing coalition.
Challenges in Government Formation
Jana Puglierin, director of the Berlin office at the European Council on Foreign Relations, anticipates a drawn-out coalition-building process. “I worry that it could take months to form a coalition government,” she said. “And once it’s in place, they still need to draft a budget—hopefully before the parliamentary summer break.”
This uncertainty is troubling, given Germany’s pressing economic downturn, debates over migration policy, and the evolving global security landscape. The Trump administration’s renewed diplomatic engagement with Russia, excluding Europe and Ukraine from negotiations, has added to the urgency of forming a strong government.
Friedrich Merz’s Leadership Prospects
As coalition talks unfold, Friedrich Merz remains the most likely successor to Scholz. A 69-year-old conservative from a family of lawyers, Merz has built a career as a CDU parliamentarian, corporate lawyer, and former board member of BlackRock’s German branch, the world’s largest asset management firm.
Longtime CDU colleague Norbert Röttgen describes Merz as a principled leader with strong beliefs in traditional values, free-market policies, and European unity. “He’s a staunch trans-Atlanticist,” Röttgen noted, suggesting that Merz’s worldview could influence Germany’s foreign policy, particularly in its stance on Ukraine.
However, Merz may face resistance from coalition partners and the public when shaping policies. His willingness to collaborate with the AfD last month to advance a stricter immigration proposal sparked backlash, raising doubts about his commitment to avoiding alliances with the far-right party.
Voter Concerns
The prospect of Merz’s leadership has drawn mixed reactions. Ute Wolters, a 64-year-old architect from Lower Saxony, expressed skepticism. “He’s a capable businessman, but I worry he might break his promise not to cooperate with the AfD,” she said.
Meanwhile, Ulrich Hinz, a 74-year-old retired businessman from Frankfurt, believes Merz’s European outlook could be beneficial. “Germany needs a government that strengthens ties with France, Italy, and Poland,” he said. “That’s the only way to keep pace with global powers like China, Russia, and the U.S.”
Esme Nicholson contributed to this story from Berlin.
Source: NPR
